Early-phase pandemic in Italy: Covid-19 spread determinant factors.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the environmental factors beyond virus transmission are only partially known. This statistical study has the aim to identify the key factors that have affected the virus spread during the early phase of pandemic in Italy, among a wide set of potential determinants concerning demographics, environmental pollution and climate. Because of its heterogeneity in pollution levels and climate conditions, Italy provides an ideal scenario for an ecological study. Moreover, the selected period excludes important confounding factors, as different virus variants, restriction policies or vaccines. The short-term relationship between the infection maximum increase and demographic, pollution and meteo-climatic parameters was investigated, including both winter-spring and summer 2020 data, also focusing separately on the two seasonal periods and on North vs Centre-South. Among main results, the importance of population size confirmed social distancing as a key management option. The pollution hazardous role undoubtedly emerged, as NO2 affected infection increase in all the studied scenarios, PM2.5 manifested its impact in North of Italy, while O3 always showed a protective action. Whereas higher temperatures were beneficial, especially in the cold season with also wind and relative humidity, solar irradiance was always relevant, revealing several significant interactions with other co-factors. Presented findings address the importance of the environment in Sars-CoV-2 spread and indicated that special carefulness should be taken in crowded areas, especially if they are highly polluted and weakly exposed to sun. The results suggest that containment of future epidemics similar to Covid-19 could be supported by reducing environmental pollution, achieving safer social habits and promoting preventive health care for better immune system response, as an only comprehensive strategy.

An agent-based model to assess large-scale COVID-19 vaccination campaigns for the Italian territory: The case study of Lombardy region.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, the administration of COVID-19 vaccines began in late 2020. In the early stages, the number of available doses was limited. To maximize the effectiveness of the vaccine campaign, the national health agency assigned priority access to at-risk individuals, such as health care workers and the elderly. Current vaccination campaign strategies do not take full advantage of the latest mathematical models, which capture many subtle nuances, allowing different territorial situations to be analyzed aiming to make context-specific decisions. OBJECTIVES: The main objective is the definition of an agent-based model using open data and scientific literature to assess and optimize the impact of vaccine campaigns for an Italian region. Specifically, the aim is twofold: (i) estimate the reduction in the number of infections and deaths attributable to vaccines, and (ii) assess the performances of alternative vaccine allocation strategies. METHODS: The COVID-19 Agent-based simulator Covasim has been employed to build an agent-based model by considering the Lombardy region as case study. The model has been tailored by leveraging open data and knowledge from the scientific literature. Dynamic mobility restrictions and the presence of Variant of Concern have been explicitly represented. Free parameters have been calibrated using the grid search methodology. RESULTS: The model mimics the COVID-19 wave that hit Lombardy from September 2020 to April 2021. It suggests that 168,492 cumulative infections 2,990 cumulative deaths have been avoided due to the vaccination campaign in Lombardy from January 1 to April 30, 2021. Without vaccines, the number of deaths would have been 66% greater in the 80-89 age group and 114% greater for those over 90. The best vaccine allocation strategy depends on the goal. To minimize infections, the best policy is related to dose availability. If at least 1/3 of the population can be covered in 4 months, targeting at-risk individuals and the elderly first is recommended; otherwise, the youngest people should be vaccinated first. To minimize overall deaths, priority is best given to at-risk groups and the elderly in all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: This work proposes a methodological approach that leverages open data and scientific literature to build a model of COVID-19 capable of assessing and optimizing the impact of vaccine campaigns. This methodology can help national institutions to design regional mathematical models that can support pandemic-related decision-making processes.

COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy: Protecting Worker Health and the Response of the Italian Industrial Hygienists Association.

The number of people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), i.e. the virus causing coronavirus disease (COVID-19), is dramatically increasing worldwide to the size of a pandemic. At the time of writing Italy is ranking first among countries both in terms of number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and in terms of number of deaths. Such a wide spread of COVID-19 has led to concern among workers who are facing the risk of becoming infected during the execution of their duties. We believe it is useful to remark on the need for professional expertise in the field of Occupational Hygiene in this emergency context, in which the indications provided by national and international bodies, the available scientific literature and the legal provisions are constantly and rapidly evolving. It is of fundamental importance that there is an effective analysis of expert inputs, to provide essential guidance to Health, Safety and Environmental managers and other prevention managers in workplaces. In this regard, not only a constant update of the regulatory framework is needed, but also a development and circulation of operational guidance to all the stakeholders to translate general indications into clear operating procedures and implementation tools to be adopted in the workplaces. We believe that the scientific associations in the field of Occupational Hygiene play a crucial role in guiding and assisting prevention professionals. There is considerable expertise in the occupational hygiene and exposure science communities that can help employers and workers to contain and delay the spread of COVID-19. For this reason, the Italian Association of Industrial Hygienists (AIDII-Associazione Italiana degli Igienisti Industriali) published documents containing operational guidelines to provide correct and constantly updated information for: (i) workers employed in essential activities (with low and medium risk of contagion), (ii) health workers and other workers at high or very high risk of contagion, and (iii) for the correct use and handling of personal protective equipment for workers and for the population in general. It is worth pointing out that the documents produced are not intended to replace those produced by authoritative bodies, but to comply with and complete them by reporting an effective summary and further indications about the measures that should be taken in practice under the light of the Italian legislation. At present, the challenge is to produce scientifically sound knowledge, appropriate tools, and effective methodologies, by coordinating the initiatives of different scientific associations, with the final aim to effectively transfer them to employers and workers.